Contributor info: Prof. Florian Bernlochner

Florian Urs Bernlochner, Daniel C. Fry, Stephen Burns Menary, Eric Persson

SciPost Phys. Core 6, 013 (2023) · published 16 March 2023 | Toggle abstract · pdf

We investigate the asymptotic distribution of the profile likelihood ratio (PLR) when constraining effective field theories (EFTs) and show that Wilks' theorem is often violated, meaning that we should not assume the PLR to follow a $\chi^2$-distribution. We derive the correct asymptotic distributions when either one or two real EFT couplings modulate observable cross sections with a purely linear or quadratic dependence. We then discover that when both the linear and quadratic terms contribute, the PLR distribution does not have a simple form. In this case we provide a partly-numerical solution for the one-parameter case. Using a novel approach, we find that the constants which define our asymptotic distributions may be obtained experimentally using a profile of the Asimov likelihood contour. Our results may be immediately used to obtain the correct coverage when deriving real-world EFT constraints using the PLR as a test-statistic.

Kyle Cranmer, Sabine Kraml, Harrison B. Prosper, Philip Bechtle, Florian U. Bernlochner, Itay M. Bloch, Enzo Canonero, Marcin Chrzaszcz, Andrea Coccaro, Jan Conrad, Glen Cowan, Matthew Feickert, Nahuel Ferreiro Iachellini, Andrew Fowlie, Lukas Heinrich, Alexander Held, Thomas Kuhr, Anders Kvellestad, Maeve Madigan, Farvah Mahmoudi, Knut Dundas Morå, Mark S. Neubauer, Maurizio Pierini, Juan Rojo, Sezen Sekmen, Luca Silvestrini, Veronica Sanz, Giordon Stark, Riccardo Torre, Robert Thorne, Wolfgang Waltenberger, Nicholas Wardle, Jonas Wittbrodt

SciPost Phys. 12, 037 (2022) · published 25 January 2022 | Toggle abstract · pdf

The statistical models used to derive the results of experimental analyses are of incredible scientific value and are essential information for analysis preservation and reuse. In this paper, we make the scientific case for systematically publishing the full statistical models and discuss the technical developments that make this practical. By means of a variety of physics cases -- including parton distribution functions, Higgs boson measurements, effective field theory interpretations, direct searches for new physics, heavy flavor physics, direct dark matter detection, world averages, and beyond the Standard Model global fits -- we illustrate how detailed information on the statistical modelling can enhance the short- and long-term impact of experimental results.